How to Predict the Unpredictable

How to Predict the Unpredictable

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We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase a€˜winning streaksa€™ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be. In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase a€˜representativenessa€™ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. Youa€™ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.Herea#39;s a grim thought for the next time youa#39;re waiting to speak to a customer service representative. ... you have trouble getting through to a business, you might want to hang up and call back using an Internet phone service like Google Voice.

Title:How to Predict the Unpredictable
Author: William Poundstone
Publisher:Oneworld Publications - 2014-04-09

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